Folsom Lake

davewsail · Post by **davewsail** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 12:05 pm

Rich, where are you getting your forecast from? NOAA shows 15-25 mph with a red flag extending to el dorado county. :-o

Bulldog · Post by **Bulldog** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 12:21 pm

Yeah, it's forecast to gust to 40 mph. here on the west side, which (if it happens) should mean at least 15-20 at Folsom.

Downslope winds through Sierra canyons to 50 mph.

Proparoo · Post by **Proparoo** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 2:08 pm

I know NOAA if forcasting Red Flag but I don't think we will get the strong stuff at Folsom.

Strong winds in the sierra and foothils but I Folsom is questionable to me.

All the forcasts I have been going with are Weather.com and even the Sacramento NOAA forcast is nothing to write home about.

Here they are:

Weather.com for Folsom: http://www.weather.com/weather/local/US ... centsearch

NOAA Sacramento Forcast is callinf for strong wind north of us:
MORNING UPDATE... NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE. PRIMARY ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. RED FLAG WARNING TIMING STILL LUKS GUD BUT IN ADDITION WILL BE LOOKING AT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PUBLIC ZONES. NEXT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE CONTINUED NICE WEATHER ONCE THE WIND DIMINISHES LATE TOMORROW. .EARLIER DISCUSSION... WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORCAL AS EVIDENT BY A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ROUGHLY FROM UKIAH TO RED BLUFF TO SUSANVILLE. ALONG THE COAST A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING MUCH INLAND PENETRATION WITH A 1.3MB GRADIENT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNVALLEY WINDS WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 UNDER SOME HIGH CLOUDS. RUC...GFS AND WRF KEEP THE TROF MORE CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CNSAC MM5 HAS 100KT JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A 12MB SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM MEDFORD TO REDDING TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY. BUFKIT AND 925 MB ANALYSIS SHOW A BARRIER JET ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AROUND 06Z. BY 12Z THIS WILL WORK INTO THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY AND DELTA. MEANWHILE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN BLOWING THROUGH CANYONS OF THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SIERRA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND NORTHERN MOTHERLODE. AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW. UPPER LEVEL FORCING DECREASES AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR US TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SG

davewsail · Post by **davewsail** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 2:40 pm

How about we all do a wind dance and forget the forecast? I'll be happy if I'm kiting tomorrow on the lake else I won't.

fearlu · Post by **fearlu** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:54 pm

Rich, Dave: keep us in the loop for Wednesday!

Bulldog · Post by **Bulldog** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:12 pm

NWS Sacto this evening:

The
trough combined with the eastern Pacific Ridge will strengthening
pressure gradient and increasing wind gusts to warning criteria
60-70 miles per hour in the mountains and advisory criteria 40-50 miles per hour in the Sacramento Valley. Winds are expected to subside as the trough moves further east into The Rockies Wednesday afternoon but the warnings and advisory may need to be continued through the day Wednesday.

If it's blowing 40-50 anywhere in the valley, it WILL be blowing at Folsom, at least 15-20. Just my 2 cents.

Greg · Post by **Greg** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:22 pm

:-k dont go.. you'll kill yourself! ](*,)
Friends dont let friends kite dusty-gusty-valley-grung wind, :ANAL:
L.M.G.

Bulldog · Post by **Bulldog** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 9:14 pm

It's the magic water at Folsom. It calms that dusty-gusty wind down. Plus, like Rich said, it never blows as hard there as it does other places. Like at my place, for example.

Proparoo · Post by **Proparoo** » Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:48 am

Oh Paul,

I really don't want to dissagree with you but i have had some of the strongest, gusty days of my 25 years windsurfing at Folsom...

A few years ago in the winter I remember a 60+mph day that I couldn't even get to the water with my gear! I had to wait till it dropped to 50 to get on the water...

Looks like you will all get your fill today...

I WAS WRONG !!! IT WILL BLOW AT FOLSOM...

Have a great time and give me a call to let me know just how good it is / was...

davewsail · Post by **davewsail** » Wed Oct 25, 2006 8:01 am

Well guys, it's 8am and it's already breezy here. Cold as hell but breezy. I think it's going to happen! The Folsom lake sensor is showing 11mph: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobe ... banner=off

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